Balochistan’s Geostrategic Significance, the Politics of Major Powers – Managing Its Impact

BTN Seminar- 23 May 2022- Quetta

Lt. Gen.Khalid Ahmed Kidwai – AD NCA

Concluding Remarks of Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai NI, HI, HI (M), (R) Advisor Development National Command Authority delivered at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN) Seminar “Balochistan’s Geostrategic Significance, the Politics of Major Powers  Managing Its Impact” on 23 May 2022.

1. Honourable Governor Balochistan Mir Jan Muhammad Jamali Sahib.
2. Brigadier Agha Ahmed Gul, Dr Farooq Sahib VC BUITEMS, Brig Zahir Kazmi, Dr Zafar Khan, distinguished speakers of today’s seminar, faculty of Balochistan Think Tank Network, esteemed guests, ladies and gentlemen.
3. I would like to express my gratitude to all of you for gracing with your presence this first ever seminar by Balochistan Think Tank Network the BTTN. Some of you I know have traveled from distant places and we truly appreciate that.
4. We are especially grateful to the Honourable Governor for gracing the seminar with his presence. BTTN feels most encouraged by your presence.
5. I would like to commend the eminent speakers of today’s seminar for their deep insight on a subject that not only remains current in Pakistan’s national security discourse but also takes center stage in any debate or analysis of the regional geo-political scenario. All in all it has been a most educative and rewarding day.
6. Given the global and regional dynamics of today’s competing power interests Balochistan with its strategic location has become a natural focal point or a pivot for regional rivalry and control. In some ways I am reminded of Mackinder’s Heartland theory of 1904 and 1919 wherein he had expounded that control of East Europe was pivotal to the control of the World Island of Europe, Asia and Africa and thereby to the control of the world. Whether his theory has stood the test of time over the past 100 years or not is beside the point but I am tempted to stick my neck out in a similar vein by drawing a relatively modest regional analogy and say that he who controls Balochistan acquires a distinct advantage to the control of the gateway of Afghanistan, on to Central Asia, and beyond then to Mackinder’s heartland. The key to Balochistan’s centrality in regional great games therefore lies in its two-way connectivity of the heartland to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
7. As was rightly brought out by Brig Ahmed Gul is his opening address, Balochistan is geographically not only the largest province of Pakistan but is also located in a ‘geo-political crush zone’. Many of the other eminent speakers also highlighted the significance of Balochistan because of its geo-economic and geostrategic importance for Pakistan whose positive and timely exploitation could immensely benefit the people of Balochistan and the people of Pakistan at large. Balochistan is a critical province of Pakistan that borders with Iran and Afghanistan and is therefore vital for the security of Pakistan’s western borders and its economic wellbeing.
8. From Peter the Great of the old Russian Empire to his successor President Vladimir Putin of modern Russia, from the historic British Empire of the 19th and early 20th Centuries to the contemporary global powers the US and China, and today’s regional powers of Pakistan, India, Iran and the countries of Central Asia, all have their respective strategic interests in this part of the world for a variety of geo-strategic, economic and socio-cultural reasons. And that makes a long list of countries with converging or diverging interests. Many international scholars and indeed all the speakers of today’s seminar have highlighted the significance of Balochistan because of these strategic imperatives.
9. There is no doubt that Balochistan has the potential to become one of the largest trade and transit regions for landlocked Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics that are interested in trade and economic activities with the countries of the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Simultaneously, it is also in Pakistan’s interest to attract the Central Asian countries for transit trade through a peaceful Afghanistan and a peaceful Balochistan.
10. With the rise of China, the centrality of Balochistan in international politics and the furthering of economic interests has further enhanced as China attempts to develop regional connectivity via Pakistan through the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Gwadar Deep Sea Port. Once these are fully functional and developed, CPEC and Gwadar will ensure regional connectivity mutually benefiting Pakistan and China in general and Balochistan in particular. Thus through the imperatives of cooperation and competition rather than the misplaced strategies of containment and conflict, international and regional powers can ensure peace, stability and prosperity in the broader South Asian region where each stakeholder in a win-win situation can derive benefits through regional connectivity and the economic corridor with interwoven and integrated economic stakes.
11. Unfortunately however, the dream of reaping mutual economic benefits by regional countries has been relegated at the altar of geo-political competition and containment of China strategies of the US with India as willing facilitator. China’s grand economic strategy of connectivity of Mackinder’s World Island of Eurasia and Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which CPEC is a flagship project, is perceived by the US as a threat to its world dominance as well as by India. The BRI and the CPEC also run counter to the grand US design of controlling the trade choke points of China in the Southern China Sea and the Straits of Malacca because it provides China alternative routes to possible interdiction and blockade of its strategic sea lines of communications.
12. In this context, the US and its allies are making all efforts to contain China’s rise through groupings like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the Australia, UK, US (AUKUS) axis while China on the other hand attempts to integrate economically with as many Asian countries including Pakistan as its response to neutralize the US strategy of containment. It is probably inevitable therefore that along with cooperation and competition, the strategy of containment between the major powers is likely to continue and only accelerate further.
13. Many fear that the struggle between these opposing imperatives is likely to create a broader security dilemma that in turn could produce serious military conflicts between these powers. As far as Pakistan and Balochistan are concerned we already find ourselves in the eye of the storm as multiple pressures in the form of hybrid warfare are being generated to compel recoil from our CPEC commitment.
14. Pakistan is today faced with multiple security challenges consequent to the rise of China, the BRI and CPEC. Some of these are the US offshore balancing strategy, India’s military and nuclear modernization along with outreach to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the Chabahar Port versus Gwadar deep sea port, etc. One is not surprised therefore that Pakistan and its biggest province Balochistan have become a geo-political playground for major powers in their power struggles. It is sad to see the induced instability in a beautiful part of Pakistan which at one time was at peace with itself.
15. Personally, as an army officer I have served in Balochistan for over 11 years in the eighties and the nineties. As a family we have enjoyed every minute of our multiple postings. We have made homes in Quetta a number of times, in Sibi and in Zhob and enjoyed all that Balochistan has to offer in terms of its natural and pure rugged beauty, abundant shopping, delicious food, trips to Ziarat, the lakes and streams, and most certainly, the company and hospitality of the wonderful Baloch, Pashtun and Hazara people. Balochistan remains our favourite province and we love visiting there again and again.
16. But together with the joys of visiting Balochistan, one is also deeply saddened and appalled by the abject poverty and state of neglect in different sectors of human development that Balochistan has continued to suffer over the years. There is no doubt that it remains the most neglected province. And there is so much that needs to be done here and could have been done if only there was adequate political will and the mind and heart to apply to do good by the people of Balochistan.
17. What should Pakistan be doing as a response to the geo-political onslaught and addressing the developmental issues of Balochistan? In my opinion there is no meaningful alternative to sincere and honest fast track and focused economic and social development in key areas of Balochistan.

We have all been hearing for decades endlessly about any number of special economic packages earmarked for Balochistan by successive governments as if they were doing a great favour to Balochistan. What do we have to show on the ground for these packages? Not much.

8. While Pakistan needs to keep pace with the fast evolving geo-political dynamics affecting Pakistan and the province of Balochistan, we need to focus on economic development of the province and make up for lost time. Developing and implementing socio-economic strategies and cashing out maximum advantages to Balochistan will benefit and counter some of the difficulties.
9. There is a need to urgently resolve burning issues such as the rapidly diminishing water resources, which is now reaching the SOS level, insecurity of the local population, mismanagement of education, health, unemployment, poor governance, corruption, and many other longstanding grievances that our brothers of Balochistan are confronted with. Failure to address these issues has already aggravated the situation and it will continue to aggravate further if neglect and absence of political and economic will is allowed to persist. External forces will continue to exploit the vacuum and work against the vital interest of Pakistan and we should then not blame anyone except ourselves.
10. It is in the interest of Pakistan and Balochistan that we all work much harder and better than what we have done so far for bringing progress and prosperity to Pakistan’s largest province. This is not a favour to Balochistan; it is its right as much as it is of any other part of Pakistan.
11. Before I end, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to offer my sincere compliments to Balochistan Think Tank Network for organizing today’s seminar most professionally. It has been a very educative and useful day. It is really heartening to watch the progress that BTTN has made in a very short span of time, less than a year in fact, and it has earned a place of prominence and academic repute not only in Balochistan but across Pakistan. And for this all credit to Brig Ahmed Gul, Dr Zafar Khan and their wonderful team of professional academics.
12. A very special thanks to all the eminent speakers who have enlightened us and enriched our understanding of the issues of Balochistan. Thanks to our esteemed guests for finding the time to be here and honouring BTTN. And most certainly, no amount of words would ever be enough to express our gratitude to Vice Chancellor BUITEMS Dr Farooq Sahib for his consistent support to BTTN. Without your support BTTN would not have succeeded.

I Thank You