Syed Samiullah
The recently concluded COP28, the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, held in Dubai from November 30 to December 13, witnessed a significant paradigm shift in addressing climate change globally. Amidst the ongoing discussions about reducing fossil fuel emissions and promoting renewable energy, a remarkable proposal gained prominence an increased focus on nuclear energy.
Climate change, driven by global warming and its profound impacts on the planet, has become an urgent concern. The escalation of global temperatures, primarily attributed to human activities like burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and certain industrial practices, has resulted in detrimental consequences such as heatwaves, wildfires, and environmental disruptions.
In the quest for a sustainable solution to combat climate change, the spotlight has shifted towards nuclear energy. Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power is a zero-carbon energy source, producing no carbon during its operational phase. The move towards making the energy system carbon-neutral aligns with the global goal of limiting the rise in environmental temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Though controversy surrounded the initial propositions at COP28, with some countries advocating for a threefold increase in nuclear power capacity by 2050, while others pushed for a similar boost in renewable energy but, However, it is essential to recognize that these approaches may complement each other, as the overall energy demand might accommodate both strategies.
Nuclear power, once mired in controversies related to safety, proliferation, and accidents like Three Mile Island, Fukushima, and Chernobyl, staged a surprising comeback in the COP28. The uncertainties surrounding renewable energy’s ability to meet the world’s energy needs, both in terms of quality and quantity, have rekindled interest in nuclear power.
“Nuclear energy’s inclusion in the Global Stocktake is nothing short of a historic milestone and a reflection of how much perspectives have changed,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi. “It demonstrates there is now a global consensus on the need to scale up this clean and reliable technology to achieve our vital goals on climate change and sustainable development.” Grossi added.
As part of the COP28 proceedings, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the COP28 Presidency jointly announced the IAEA Statement on Nuclear Power. Supported by over 50 nuclear-operating and newcomer countries, this statement underscores the critical role of nuclear energy in the net-zero transition.
The IAEA’s annual nuclear power outlook projects a doubling of installed nuclear capacity by 2050, emphasizing the substantial growth potential of nuclear energy. A separate declaration at COP28 saw more than 22 countries committing to tripling nuclear power capacity by 2050, signaling a collective effort to advance nuclear energy as a clean and sustainable source. As of 2022, there were 440 nuclear power plants worldwide, contributing 10% to the global electricity supply.
Despite this positive momentum, challenges persist, including financial and policy hurdles. The IAEA and global leaders call for collaboration between public and private sectors to expedite nuclear energy development. The introduction of the World Fusion Energy Group (WFEG) aims to foster discussions and enhance global collaboration on fusion energy.
“The IAEA has a very important role to play in bringing fusion energy to the world,” remarked Christofer Mowry, Former CEO of General Fusion Inc. He stressed the need for the IAEA’s experience and capability in critical areas like regulation, complementing other COP28 initiatives.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, French President Emmanuel Macron, and IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced the Nuclear Energy Summit scheduled for Brussels in March 2024. This summit aims to gather around 30 countries, industry leaders, experts, and civil society representatives to build on the global momentum behind nuclear power.
The summit is also expected to feature the IAEA’s Atom4NetZero initiative, offering comprehensive, data-driven energy scenario modeling, including nuclear power’s potential contribution to net-zero emissions. “Today we celebrate the real progress that nuclear power has made in the global climate and energy debate,” stated the IAEA Director General. “But we must tackle several challenges if we are to succeed. The Nuclear Energy Summit is the next major event where the world will come together to discuss how we can forge real solutions.”
In Pakistan’s context, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) outlines determined goals, stating, “The aim is to generate 8,800 MW of electricity by 2030 and a staggering 40,000 MW by 2050.” This signals a significant step towards diminishing dependence on fossil fuels. The landscape of nuclear energy evolves with the introduction of Gen-IV reactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), ushering in a new era. Gen-IV reactors stand out for their enhanced safety features, decreased nuclear waste, and a more sustainable energy yield. Meanwhile, SMRs, boasting capacities ranging from 10-300MW, emerge as a flexible and efficient alternative to their larger counterparts.
The global pursuit of a sustainable, low-carbon future finds resonance in the adoption of nuclear power, particularly with Gen-IV and SMRs. The international community witnesses countries like China taking the lead in implementing cutting-edge nuclear technologies. This shift is highlighted by the resolution at COP28, marking a pivotal moment for the nuclear industry.
For Pakistan, strategic collaboration with China in SMR development emerges as a potentially beneficial move. SMRs, designed for rapid deployment and scalability, open a promising avenue for the future. Nevertheless, regulatory bodies must swiftly adapt to these technological advancements and explore the potential of nuclear exports.
As the nuclear market undergoes expansion post-COP28, nations such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already channeling investments into nuclear power projects. To leverage this momentum, Pakistan must adopt a proactive stance, particularly in realms like training, testing, and fabrication. Aligning with China, a frontrunner in nuclear technology, can pave the way for mutually beneficial ventures.
In summary, the emphasis placed on tripling nuclear power capacity at COP28 reflects a global acknowledgment of nuclear energy’s pivotal role in addressing climate change. As nations navigate the transition towards sustainable energy, nuclear power stands poised to play a crucial role in shaping a cleaner, greener future.
The author is a Research Officer at Rabita Forum International and the associate Editor of the Monthly Interaction.
