Keynote address by Lt. Gen. Khalid Ahmad Kidwai, NI, HI, HI(M) at 21st November 2023
Interaction Team
Dr. Naeem Ahmad Salik, Executive Director Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), respected guests and academics from Russia, ladies and gentlemen, Assalam Alaikum and good morning. At the outset I would like to extend a very warm welcome to our Russian guests for being with us this morning. We are grateful that you found the time from your very busy schedules to be in Pakistan. We are honoured by your presence.
I hope that besides the serious business of participating in the two-day conference, SVI will give you ample opportunity to see and enjoy some parts of Pakistan, a bit of Pakistani culture, a touch of life in Pakistan, and lots and lots of Pakistani hospitality and our cuisine. I am sure that you will carry with you happy memories of your stay in Pakistan. You are welcome to come again and again.
I would also like to extend my sincere appreciation and felicitations to the Strategic Vision Institute for organizing this important conference in collaboration with four highly rated Russian Think Tanks. Under the brilliant leadership of Dr Naeem Ahmad Salik, the SVI has come a long way in establishing itself as one of Pakistan’s leading think tanks.
Joint events and conferences like this one involving experts and scholars from both countries augur well for the relationship between the two countries and will promote better understanding of each other’s view point and world view on a variety of issues of mutual concern and interest. I sincerely wish that this interaction between the academics and intellectuals of Pakistan and Russia will lead to more frequent exchange of visits by both sides.
The theme of the Conference “Pakistan-Russia Relations Amid Transforming Global Order” has been well selected keeping in view the rapidly transforming, rapidly evolving global order. Major global events like the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Palestine, the emergence of important forums like the SCO, BRICS, Quad and AUKUS, the deDollarization drive, the recent meeting of President Xi Jin Ping and President Biden with some melting of ice, to name just a few, are becoming agents of transformation in the emerging global order.
Our part of the world, South Asia, is invariably affected by these developments especially ever since President Obama’s policy of ‘Pivot to Asia’ took root and started to generate strategic effects in our region. Earlier the US policies of exceptionalism of giving India a free pass or exemption on trade with the Nuclear Suppliers Group exacerbated Pakistan’s security concerns and continues to exert pressure on Pakistan’s strategic response options.
It is in this larger picture of a transforming global order that Pakistan-Russia relations need to be seen and understood. In the past our relations have seen cycles of ups and downs though I can say with confidence that as of now and for some years the relationship has matured and is on a steady growth trajectory with a positive curve.
While this relationship started on a positive note but then somewhere along the way, it unfortunately dipped downwards due to the vagaries of the then prevailing geo-political and security environments, and sometime misunderstandings. However, a relatively high point came in 1965 when the then USSR oversaw peace parleys between India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the 1965 war which resulted in a peace agreement of sorts between India and Pakistan at Tashkent.
This led to the warming up of relations for the next few years until they experienced strong head winds during and preceding the India-Pakistan war in 1971. However, in 1972 the Pakistani government revived the relationship once again. This period was symbolized by the construction of the Pakistan Steel Mill at Karachi by the Soviet Union, and there was co-operation in other areas including defence as well. I recall the professional excitement when I was a young captain in 1973, recently repatriated after being a prisoner of war for 2 years in India, and my medium regiment artillery was equipped with the Russian 130 mm gun.
It was Pakistan’s longest shooting artillery gun at the time with a maximum range of around 30 kms, and the regiment took much pride in that fact. Also added to the gun were the massive Kraz gun towers and the Gaz jeeps. In the civil sector, the Skoda car became fairly popular. All of these are pleasant memories of a positive Pakistan-Russia relationship even though the USSR had backed India in the 1971 war.
These positive trends were once again disrupted by the decade long war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. The after effects of the Afghan War lingered on not only due to internal instability in Russia and the Central Asian States following the break-up of the Soviet Union, but also in Pakistan with spillover effects of the influx of Afghan refugees, drugs and weapons. Pakistan continues to grapple with these issues even today.
The Pakistan-Russia relationship once again took a positive turn in the beginning of this century and this has been by far the longest period of upturn of bilateral relations. It now appears that there is a genuine desire in both countries to continue moving on this positive curve. Much credit for this certainly goes to President Vladimir Putin for his personal interest and contribution towards the improvement of Pakistan-Russia relations. It was on President Putin’s watch that Pakistan became a member of the SCO with Russian and Chinese support.
It was also on his watch that Pakistan has received prompt Russian response whenever it needed to import wheat in periods of food insecurity. More recently Pakistan has received two shipments of oil from Russia and agreements for more such shipments are underway. The next critical agreement likely to be finalized in the near future would be for the procurement of LPG from Russia.
The co-operation between the two militaries is also growing with soldiers from both sides visiting each other’s country for undertaking joint training exercises. In 2021 alone, 1600 Pakistani military personnel visited Russia to participate in various joint exercises. An evidence of the growing goodwill for Russia can be judged from the fact that the otherwise boisterous Pakistani media does not run any stories which might project Russia in a negative light.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Pakistan has not voted in favour of any UN Resolution against Russia despite international pressure that it has had to endure. The record of the UN voting patterns also shows that Pakistan is among the top countries that have voted in sync with Russia on various international issues showing the convergence in thinking and policies between the two countries.
The bilateral consultative process between the two countries is firmly in place with regular high level meetings. Similar conversations are also regularly held between the two militaries. Pakistan is conscious of the fact that Russia underwrites security and stability in Central Asia which is Pakistan’s close neighbourhood, and stability in Central Asia also impacts positively on the broader regional stability. There is also a congruence of policies between Russia, Pakistan and China on the critical issue of peace and stability in Afghanistan.
In view of the implementation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), vast opportunities exist for greater connectivity between the Eurasian region linking Pakistan with Russia through road and rail networks. This will boost trade and economic development in the whole region given the potential of the Eurasian region to become a vibrant economic hub for international economic growth. At the global level, Pakistanis deeply appreciate President Putin’s strong stand against Islamophobia and the incidents of desecration of the Holy Quran in some Scandinavian countries.
Having said that, there still are some areas which have not received due attention and need a focused approach to include, among others, education and exchange of students. I am happy to note that this is being given requisite importance in this conference as is evident from the fact that a dedicated panel has been reserved for discussion on this issue.
It is also imperative that the frequency of interactions like this conference, providing greater exchange of ideas, promoting collaborative research projects and discussions between scholars and experts is enhanced, in order to provide intellectual support to greater mutual understanding, which in turn, will contribute positively towards further strengthening of bilateral ties.
The growing strategic affinity between Russia and Pakistan’s closest strategic partner China also generate positive vibes in Pakistan. I am happy to note that Russia respects Pakistan’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy. By the same token Pakistan does not particularly grudge Russia’s long standing strategic relationships with some countries in our neighbourhood. However, we do hope that while providing high end military hardware to those countries Russia would very carefully consider the likely repercussions on Pakistan’s security and regional stability.
I am also glad to note that there are two dedicated sessions in this Conference, scheduled one each for today and tomorrow, on the broader aspects of nuclear energy and nuclear risks. One is titled ‘Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Development Russian and Pakistani Experience’ and the other one is ‘Reducing Nuclear Risks at the Time of Conflict Escalation’. Since I have been associated with Pakistan’s broader nuclear programme, I would like to say a few words on each, perhaps, as pre-cursor to the panel discussions.
What are the emerging challenges for Pakistan especially in the context of its national security interests measured whether in economic terms including the contribution of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, or in military terms including its capability as a nuclear weapons power as a tool of strategic deterrence.
The two givens of Pakistan’s strategic environments are: one, that Pakistan enjoys a relatively advantageous position because of its geostrategic location as a potential trade and security corridor and two, Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapons power with the additional desire, capabilities and a visionary nuclear energy programme to further its objectives in the field of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. While debating the various possibilities of a nation’s nuclear capabilities, I would like to say with confidence that for Pakistan, whether in economic terms or in security terms, acquisition of the nuclear capability as the 7th nuclear power in the world has been a major strategic advantage and has worked well to ameliorate many of Pakistan’s concerns in both these areas civil and military.
In military terms Pakistan’s nuclear capability has proven beyond doubt to be a viable strategic solution in providing security through deterrence and satisfactorily addressing Pakistan’s longstanding dilemma of relative conventional forces asymmetry viz its adversary.
Because of a robust nuclear weapons capability articulated through the policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence, Pakistan is secure from possible aggression by its larger neighbour. I have said this on a number of occasions and would like to repeat for emphasis that Pakistan’s nuclear capability, as the great equalizer, has proved to be an instrument of peace enforcement in South Asia. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons can therefore be regarded as weapons of peace.
However, as will be discussed in tomorrow’s session on Reducing Nuclear Risks at the time of Conflict Escalation, the nuclear capabilities in South Asia, in the absence of conflict resolution to long standing disputes, do not come without the risks of miscalculation, misunderstandings or miscommunication in a conflict situation.
The two escalatory episodes of February 2019 and March 2022 both undertaken by India as high risk irresponsible adventures highlight the need for a mature and responsible risk reduction mechanism to be put in place between Pakistan and India. The earlier the better. On this account Pakistan has never been found wanting in making any number of nuclear risk reduction proposals including the well-conceived and well-articulated long standing Strategic Restraint Regime. I shall leave it that.
In economic terms, Pakistan’s civil nuclear energy programme is in a potentially take off stage with its Nuclear Energy Vision-2050, which stands duly approved by Pakistan’s National Command Authority as far back as 2011. The Nuclear Energy Vision-2050 envisages the provision of 42000 MWs, the equivalent of almost 10 Kalabagh Dams, of clean, safe and relatively cheap energy to Pakistan’s economic needs through the sequential installation of a series of nuclear0 power plants across the country well balanced in all four provinces.
A salient feature of Nuclear Energy Vision-2050 is that very early on after the installation of the first few pairs of nuclear power plants the programme has the potential to earn for itself and become self-financing so as not to place any financial burden on limited government resources.
Pakistan’s seven nuclear power plants including four at Chashma and three at Karachi are a pioneering part of the Nuclear Energy Vision-2050 and have gone a long way in proving Pakistan’s capability of safe, clean and efficient operations. Chashma-5 is next in line and given adequate governmental support, the Programme can go a long way in ameliorating Pakistan’s energy needs.
The global politics of embargoes and restrictions inhibited Pakistan’s ventures into this area for many years to KANUPP-I only until China became Pakistan’s reliable partner in the development of nuclear power. A 325 MW Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Chashma-l was set up at Chashma in collaboration with China. Chashma-2, Chashma-3, Chashma-4, KANUPP-2 and KANUPP-3 followed making it a total of 3600 MW. K-2 and K-3 are modern Generation Ill plants. As I said, Chashma 5 is next in line.
The burning issue of climate change and the threat of rise in global temperature has now come to the rescue of nuclear energy which for some decades was being perceived as a high risk technology due to three major accidents at The Three Miles Island (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). Pakistan’s experience and clean record in running its nuclear power plants with professional expertise, strictly in line with IAEA guidelines allows one to dream on that Pakistan will succeed in establishing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes as its main effort. In this context it is now internationally well recognized that Pakistan has taken stringent measures to put in place a professionally strong state of the art nuclear safety and security regime.
In the light of what I have said I think that the topics chosen for the two sessions on nuclear aspects for today and tomorrow are most pertinent, relevant and ought to generate much interest while discussing the experiences of both Russia and Pakistan in these areas.
My best wishes for the eminent participants and for the success of this SVI sponsored important conference. And once again a very warm welcome to our guests from Russia.
I thank you ladies and gentlemen.
