That’s just the worst-case scenario, though, and it’s possible that events might not unfold entirely like that, or that Iran is even considering such a Machiavellian strategy in the first place. Having said that, it’s extremely unlikely that any “best-case scenario” will materialize because Iran crossed the Rubicon by directly blaming the ISI for supporting terrorism, thus drawing the consternation of many patriotic Pakistanis who deeply appreciate this institution’s irreplaceable role in defending their country from that said scourge.
Bilateral ties will probably take some time to recover from the self-inflicted damage that Iran wrought to them with this outburst even if it explains behind closed doors how its “deep state” divisions were the cause of it, but that doesn’t mean that all is lost for now. If Iran has the political willpower, then it can make the best out of this bad situation that its official representatives are responsible for by showing a sincere desire to deepen security cooperation with Pakistan along their shared border.
Going further, the two countries could combine their relevant military and socio-economic resources into creating a comprehensive “Democratic Security” strategy for sustainably stabilizing the transnational Balochistan region between them, possibly even securing some Chinese funds for this through an initiative that the author suggested late last year could eventually be branded as “BRI-Aid”. There’s no better time than now for Balochistan to transform from a “Blood Borders” barrier to regional integration into a CPEC+ bridge for facilitating the Golden Ring, but the ball is completely in Iran’s court.
Concluding thoughts
As regrettable as it is to see, Iran took the bait and fell for the Hybrid War plot of blaming Pakistan for the latest terrorist attack along their shared border in Balochistan, which has had the immediate consequence of reviving the US’ “Blood Borders” scenario in the region as a Kurdistan-like wedge develops between these two Muslim Great Powers.
Iran dealt enormous damage to bilateral relations with its reckless rhetoric holding the ISI responsible for what happened, but the worst-case (though nevertheless realistic) scenario of the Islamic Republic counter intuitively serving as the US’ indirect Indian-led access route to the Golden Ring’s Central Asian core can still be avoided if Tehran has the political will to team up with Islamabad against terrorism and turn Balochistan into a bridge for regional integration.
Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.