By Syed Haseeb Ali Shah
Nuclear weapons, since their invention, have been a major factor in the changing dynamics of global politics. Even it is considered as one of the indispensable reasons of emergence of the discipline ‘Strategic Studies’. Although nuclear weapons caused severe destruction during Second World War, they have barred many nuclear weapon states from going to war. It is because political scholars, who have witnessed the destruction caused by nuclear weapons, came forward with certain concepts like nuclear deterrence. Under such concepts, it was believed that a state would not use nuclear weapons against another state after knowing that other state could also retaliate with its second strike capability. In other words, despite doing a successful first nuclear strike, one cannot eliminate others capability to retaliate.
United States acquired nuclear technology in 1945. It resulted into strategic disparity between US and its adversary Soviet Union. To eliminate this strategic disparity and to restore balance of power, Moscow also acquired nuclear technology in 1949. Although it instigated a new arms race between the two adversaries, fear of being punished with the second strike restricted both from attacking each other. Second strike capability played a vital role to avoid nuclear war between the two big powers.
Similarly, India’s successful nuclear test in 1974 left no options for Pakistan but to acquire nuclear technology. Balance of power in South Asia got disturbed after India became a declared nuclear weapon state. India with its successful nuclear test in 1974 followed by a series of five tests at the Indian Army`s Pokhran Test Range in May 1998 threatened Pakistan’s security. Finally, Pakistan carried out its first successful nuclear test in May 1998 which ended strategic disparity in the region. India has always strived for having regional hegemony. It has always tried to have strategic superiority particularly over Pakistan in order to fulfil her dream to become a regional hegemonic power. Her actions has destabilized regional deterrence. It has completed its ‘nuclear triad’ which made her able to launch nuclear weapons from land, air and sea.
Moreover, it has gained second strike capability in 2016. In the response, Pakistan has also developed ‘Credible Second Strike Capability’ in January 2017, with the successful test of Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM) named as Babur III which have a range of 450 km. According to Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces, “Pakistan eyes this landmark development as a step towards reinforcing the policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence through indigenization and self-reliance.”
Development of SLCM is a milestone which is significant to bring strategic stability in the region. It is, according to ISPR, “Pakistan’s response to provocative nuclear strategies and posture being pursued in the neighborhoods”. It is “capable of delivering various types of payloads” the ISPR added. SLCM cannot be easily detected through enemy radars and possesses the capability to launch nuclear missile with better accuracy causing maximum damage. Since, it is credible enough for the second strike, it can restrict India from using strategic nuclear weapons against Pakistan.
Moreover, India always takes such actions which promote the probability of war. Making more and more weapons can lead to the useless arms race. Currently, India is spending 55 billion USD annually in its military expenditure. It is one of the major importer of weapons. Additionally, India is working on Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program. Such missile defense system can again disturb strategic stability in South Asia by accelerating the arms race between India and Pakistan. It will compel both to introduce more lethal and sophisticated weapons to outweigh each other. However, currently cruise missile Babur III will be enough to mitigate India’s hegemonic ambitions.